Nonlinear Thinking

Chaos, Boundaries and Innovation

As I am a visual thinker, I do love a good graphic.  Jeremy Gutsche, Chief Trend Hunter at TrendHunter.com, included some nice ones in his book, Exploiting Chaos last year.  At the core of his thesis, that in times of chaos, companies must learn not to create structure and stability, but rather, to adapt quickly, is this evocation of a process that is aligned with much of my thinking.  While I have nits to pick with some of his conclusions in the book, I appreciate the codification of the thinking around chaos and the opportunities that learning to manage chaos to the enterprises' (and individual's) benefit serves in creating elements of competitive advantage.

The key elements of what Gutsche refers to as the Exploiting Chaos Framework are outlined below:

Culture of Revolution

Culture is more important than strategy. Culture underlies your organization’s ability to adapt, and times of dramatic change magnify this importance. Most likely, your organization perceives the need to adapt, but uncertainty and resistance are paralyzing innovation. By creating an organizational culture of revolution, you can spark a new paradigm for creative change.

Trend Hunting

Innovation and strategic advantage hinge on your ability to anticipate trends and identify the next big thing. By using the cutting-edge framework in this book, you can filter through chaos and identify clusters of opportunity to focus your innovation.

Adaptive Innovation

Engineers, designers, and scientists have invested billions of dollars to perfect human creativity. By applying the best of their proven practices to your own field, you can think big while acting small. You can rapidly identify and evaluate new opportunities.

Infectious Messaging

The Internet has created a world cluttered with chaos, but it has also created the world’s first viral platform for ideas. Well-packaged stories travel faster than ever before. Unfortunately, most marketers are stuck in a world dominated by traditional advertising and cliché. By cultivating infection, your ideas will resonate, helping you to leapfrog ahead of the competition.

 

An expanded view of the Framework adds some color to the canvas.

The first chapter of the eBook is available for free download here and the book can also be purchased at the same location.

The Only Constant is Change: Addendum

When it rains, it pours, or so it seems.  On the heels of a recent Forrester report on the future of IT services which I wrote about here, management consultant A.T. Kearney weighs in with their own, very similar view on that future.  This recent op-ed in Businessweek by Arjun Sethi and Olivier Aries sees most of the same external drivers highlighted in the Forrester report  but offers a different and altogether more interesting futurescape for IT services.

“ In the next five years outsourcing as we know it will disappear.  The legion of Indian service providers will be sidelined or absorbed. U.S. and European companies that pioneered this corner of the high tech industry will suffer similar fates if they don't wake up.  Who will emerge as the new leaders?  Google and Amazon.com , brands that we associate with search and retail, will become better known for outsourcing."

Longtime readers of this blog will know that I have been harping on the threat that Amazon and Google, in particular, present to the old guard of IT service providers as I have written about it here, here and here. SaaS/cloud technologies, under any name, have been a game changing disruptive force for the past 10 years. When IBM acquired Corio five years ago, that should have, de facto, been some kind of canary in the coal mine.

In their commentary Sethi and Aries also conjure up a vision of what the new outsourcing model will look like.

“In the new model, outsourcers provide standard, off-the-shelf software on a "pay-per-drink" basis. For that, they will leverage so-called cloud technology, which lets users tap into computing power available via the Internet, rather than on a desktop or computer server housed locally. The appeal is scale, flexibility, and efficiency: Thousands of server computers can attack a task more quickly—and cheaply—or handle a patchwork quilt of different technologies that companies use to run their businesses. This approach will let businesses outsource entire tasks such as the tracking of inventory, paying only for the information accessed or used.”

The commentary also mentions who might be the losers in this new model (mid-tier Indian outsourcers), possible winners (SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, Salesforce), and a several major players that are not moving fast enough (Accenture, Xerox, Dell, HP).  

I am guessing that this commentary and the Forrester report will be far from the last discussions regarding the changing IT services landscape.  I would also imagine that we will see more and more discussion of the death of the internal IT department beyond the many books and reports already written.  Fasten your seatbelts.

Web 2.0, We Hardly Knew Ye

Today's Web 2.0 companies may soon find themselves transformed or even eclipsed by yet another wave of web innovators. New companies are cropping up to expand the utility of the web, creating location-based services and financial payment systems that can be bolted onto existing sites. Often bootstrapped, they are frequently profitable and may get acquired quickly. Even in today's tough environment, these upstarts are the ones raising money and trying to score a life or business-altering hit. Welcome to Web 3.0, otherwise known as the Semantic Web.

The goal of Web 3.0 is to reorganize information so users can capture what things are and how they are related. This seemingly simple concept will have a profound effect at every level of information consumption, from the individual end user to the enterprise.  Today information is stored inside specialized inflexible databases that are, in effect, information silos. What's needed now is an end to the silo and the emergence of a single unified view of our information universe where related objects are freely connected in meaningful ways.

Web 3.0 technologies make the organization of information radically more fluid and allow for new types of analysis based on things like text semantics, machine learning, and what we call serendipity – the stumbling upon insights based on just having better organized and connected information.  Web 3.0 portends a future where all information can be aggregated in a way that provides maximal insight and value. 

In the new business environment, figuring out how to most effectively communicate with your customers and potential customers is critical. At the end of the day, one of the keys to that communication is leveraging information most effectively. Being able to give customers information that they value, and being able to respond to them in a way that matches their interests are cornerstones of Web 3.0. 

Nova Spivack has taken a shot at visually constructing the path towards Web 3.0 and beyond.